This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Drives Aston Villa's Unlikely Push for Glory
Just 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his displays were an indicator or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. When the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss discarded his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard question to resolve. History, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side registered an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a club that have just won ten consecutive victories, they look curiously susceptible – however right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with some precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path where, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.